Slovenia and EU Accession - NATO Accession

Overview
In November of 2002, at the Prague Summit, the Republic of Slovenia, along with Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia, was invited to begin official accession talks towards NATO membership. With the ratification by the member states ongoing, accession is expected to take place in May of 2004, concurrent with Slovenia’s accession to the EU. While the Slovenian government has resolutely supported both NATO and EU membership as an important policy goal since independence in 1991, public support for NATO membership has always been lukewarm at best. Although the binding referendum of March 23, 2003 produced a positive result, this outcome was in doubt in the months leading up the election. Public concerns over increased defense spending, loss of national sovereignty, submission to US foreign policy, led to public approval levels as low as 37%, but accession eventually prevailed, and its impact on both Slovenia and NATO in May of 2004 will be substantial.

Chronology of NATO accession

NATO Reservations
Although this side of the debate is less publicized, NATO initially had reservations about extending a membership invitation to Slovenia. There was a debate in 1997 about whether Romania and Slovenia should be invited to join, or the list should be restricted to just Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic. The U.S., the most dominant voice in most NATO policy matters, argued for an accession round of only three nations, and although opponents said this would overemphasize Northern European geopolitical interests, the decision was made to put off the inclusion of Romania and Slovenia. The issues that initially gave cause for trepidation have since subsided. The Slovenian government has successfully made its case that it is neither too small (it is larger than NATO members Luxembourg and Iceland, it is quick to point out) nor too poor (it is the wealthiest nation of the former Eastern bloc). The only remaining question seems to be whether Slovenia can afford the costs of NATO membership in the form of increased defense spending and infrastructure reforms, but efforts to conform to NATO standards thus far have been promising. Slovenian participation in pre-NATO programs such as Partnership for Peace has been successful and Slovenia is relatively rich in comparison with the other acceding nations, but the effect that EU enlargement will have on the Slovenian economy is uncertain. NATO can, regardless, learn from the experiences of the 1999 enlargement and not retract institutional and financial support before Slovenia is truly ready to “stand on its own two feet.”

Slovenian Position for Accession
The Slovenian government has been making its case for NATO membership ever since it declared independence from the former Yugoslavia in 1991. The quest for NATO accession, has always been, in contrast to the road to EU membership, couched mainly in political terms. While EU accession is expected to have a profound economic impact throughout Slovenia, its small size and lack of military might, coupled with the relatively low level of NATO activity in recent years imply that NATO membership will not affect daily life in Slovenia to any great extent. Rather, to the Slovenian government, it signifies the Europeanization of the nation, the casting off of its bonds with the Eastern bloc and Yugoslavian regime. It is viewed as a way to give military legitimacy to a nation struggling for a voice in international relations. It will further integrate Slovenia into the international community and give it access to diplomatic channels and resources necessary in a time of crisis. That is not, of course, to say that the stability guarantee, to the extent that is not redundant with benefits provided by EU membership, is unimportant. As former president Milan Kucan puts it, “the world is not safe and peaceful, in its globality it is full of contradiction and conflict…Slovenia is as much under threat as any other country. The appearance of geographical distance is deceptive. We are not only under threat from arms, but also international crime, illegal migrations, terrorism, ecological disasters, and the profound imbalances in the world.” Slovenia was only recently in a war-torn region, and memories of the quite recent Ten Days’ War remain. Slovenian membership in NATO, it is argued, can help bring a lasting peace to the whole Balkan region, better insuring Slovenian security in the long run. Also important is that NATO membership would improve relations with other NATO members, especially neighboring Italy, vital relationships for a small, trade-oriented country such as Slovenia.

Public Arguments against Accession
Public sentiment regarding NATO accession has always, in stark contrast to EU accession, been mixed. At many points, a majority of the general public has been opposed, as well as political parties and organizations such as the Slovene Youth Party. The reasons for this skepticism are several. The fundamental issue is that, while the costs to Slovenia in the form of increased defense spending and a submission to international decision-making are clear, the benefits are less clear. Opponents argue that Slovenia faces no tangible security threat – it has fared well on its own economically, so why not militarily? They point to Slovenian success against the Yugoslavian threat in 1991 as proof that regional instability puts the nation in no dire peril. Slovenia has traces of what is known as a “third way” ideology, meaning that Slovenia was formerly sort of in limbo between Western Europe and the Soviet bloc, relatively left to its own devices, so it does not share the same sense of urgency to distance itself from its past as nations such as Poland. Similarly, it does feel as threatened as other Yugoslav breakup states and other Eastern European states because it was the most prosperous and stable among them during times of strife. There is also recognition of the fact that military might is increasingly irrelevant in international relations with the end of the Cold War and an ever-closer system of economic relationships. However, the fear most prevalent in the minds of ordinary Slovenian citizens regards the political order of the existing NATO membership. There is a worry that the U.S. dominates NATO policy, and that Slovenia would essentially be subjugating itself to US foreign policy.

EU and NATO: Simultaneous Accession
According to Slovenian Prime Minister Anton Rop, “the referendums [sic] are two sides of the same coin.” However, it is clear that the Slovenian people don’t see it as such, as evidenced by drastically different referendum results. From the beginning, politicians viewed the questions of EU and NATO membership as closely linked. Kucan speaks of them together as the engines of European integration: “the vision of a Europe united and free is coming true…with all due respect for other European and regional organizations, NATO and the European Union are the leading factors of this integration process. Their enlargement leads to a single security, economic and political area, an area of common values.” Politicians even tried to combine the two issues into a single question on the referendum ballot to ensure passage of the NATO proposal. The question opponents pose is whether Slovenia needs both EU and NATO membership. The EU, they argue, provides a great degree of stability and security merely through its domestic policy coordination and economic integration. EU membership means that the other EU member states would intervene if Slovenia were in any real danger. Opponents also cite the experience of Austria to the north, a nation that has persisted without hindrance with membership in the EU but not NATO. The EU is even showing signs of assuming some military responsibility from NATO, with its efforts to construct a Ready Reaction Force and its assumption of peacekeeping duties in Macedonia in March 2003.

Referendum Results
In any case, Slovenia will join NATO next year now that a referendum in March has given approval. Slovenia was, in fact, the only country of the seven acceding to hold a referendum, and it was initially planned as only a consultative measure, but parliamentary pressure forced the government to administer it as a binding action. There was even talk of requiring the two-thirds approval vote that was required for the ratification of the constitution, but a simple majority prevailed. The referendum had been planned for February 9, 2003, but public opposition was at an all-time high due to the emergence of the Iraq issue. 80% of the Slovenian general public opposed the war, and Slovenia was the only one of the 7 candidate countries that refused to aid in the war effort. The pro-NATO government managed to delay the referendum until March 23, in hopes that this issue would fade, as February polls indicated public approval as low as 37%. The turning point was on March 12, when Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic by an organized crime group. This was seen as a “wake up call” to the continued fragility of the region from which Slovenians felt so insulated. It immediately brought the issue of national security to the forefront and brought support to above 50%. With 60.29% turnout, 66.02% voted in favor of NATO accession (compared to 89.61% for EU accession), and NATO members began to ratify their membership within a week.

Effects on NATO
Although there is little expectation that Slovenia can contribute much manpower or capital to military operations, it occupies a unique and potentially valuable geopolitical position. It can, in effect, serve as a “Gateway to the Balkans,” increasing goodwill between the rest of former Yugoslavia and Western Europe and improving regional stability. The continued peacekeeping presence in the region is something that Slovenian troops can make a valuable contribution to given their close regional relationships. By extending NATO’s borders to the southeast, it further extends its ability to operate “out of area” in nearby regions. It also has a broader public relations effect of further legitimizing NATO as an all-inclusive organization. By representing a further diversity of regions, cultures, and demographics, US dominance of NATO is diluted (if only slightly) and it appears as a more genuinely multinational body. Also, inclusion of part of the former Yugoslavia serves to evidence NATO’s adaptation to the post-Cold War world order and imply its continued relevance.

Effects on Slovenia
The impacts that NATO accession will have on Slovenia are somewhat unclear, as they are complicated by the concurrent effects of EU accession. Increased defense spending will be required, due to equipment improvement along with membership fees and representative funds; Slovenia currently spends 1.61% of its GDP on its 7800 person military force, and that total should increase to at least 2% by 2008. Slovenia has been forced to modernize its military and also any militarily relevant infrastructure, which has born costs but also serves as a catalyst for modernization in a nation bracing itself for an influx of EU competition. In any case, Slovenia has been engaging in these reforms since the US Defense Assessment issued in 2000, so there will be no systemic shock or intense public expenditure. Membership also means the likely construction of one or more United States military bases on Slovenian soil as a base for potential operations in Southeastern Europe. In return, Slovenia will enjoy improved stature in the international community and be able to serve as the chief voice on security concerns in an entire region, the region that has arguably produced the greatest security difficulties in the past decade.

Selected Sources

• Kitsing, Meelis. “Slovenia’s NATO Worries,” Tech Central Station. 2 March 2003.
• Kucan, Milan. “The Vision of a United and Free Europe of Peace and Security,” National Assembly of the Republic of Slovenia. 16 January 2002.
• Eggleston, Roland. “Romania/Slovenia: NATO Membership Debate Continues,” Radio Free Europe. 3 June 1997.
• Zura, Drago. “Slovene Youth Party Declaration on the Slovenia NATO Admission.” 21 January 2003.
• “Slovenia Votes for EU and Nato,” BBC News. 24 March 2003.
• Slovenia and Nato: http://nato.gov.si/eng/slovenia-nato/
• Expand Nato: http://www.expandnato.org/
• NATO: http://www.nato.int/

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